“El Nino conditions may start weakening slightly after February this year. However, the conditions are still expected to continue till June after which we can see ENSOneutral conditions (No El Nino or La Nina),” said D S Pai, head, Environment Monito- ring and Research Centre (EMRC), IMD, New Delhi.
“This goes on to indicate that there may not be much effect of this phenomenon on monsoon 2024, but summer this year in India is likely to experience above-normal temperatures,” Pai told TOI.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) will issue a temperature forecast for summer at March-end based on the latest climate conditions.
Pai said monsoon followed by an El Nino year was generally likely to be stronger than a normal rainy season. However, climate factors such as winter and spring snow cover over Eurasia will also influence the final performance of monsoon rainfall activity.
“ The summer that follows El Nino may experience increased frequency of heat waves. The World Meteorological Organization had recently ranked 2023 as the warmest year on record globally with the annual average global temperature being 1.45°C higher than pre-industrial levels,” he said.
‘2024 could be warmest’
2024 could be warmest year globally, warn scientists
Pai said one of the reasons for this warming is the El Nino that formed around May last year.
“Such a situation is continuing even now with stronger intensity, which could cause a hotter summer this year globally. As per latest projections, 2024 could even be the warmest y ear globally, surpassing 2023’s annual average global temperature.
Currently, the sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal over most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and strong El Nino conditions are prevailing. IMD’s latest forecasts indicate that the El Nino conditions are likely to continue through April, May and June 2024 and then turn to ENSO-neutral. Skymet Weather Services president GP Sharma on Friday told TOI, “Currently, El Nino has reached its zenith. Its impact is expected to wane after February 2024. This implies that its peak is likely to persist for approximately another six weeks. However, there is no discernible sharp decline in its intensity even beyond that period.”
He said, “It is anticipated that ENSO conditions may shift to a neutral state by May or June of this year, aligning with or preceding the onset of the 2024 monsoon. Additionally, there is a possibility of conditions leaning towards La Nina during the final weeks of September this year.”
The persistence of El Nino through the upcoming summer is likely to cause higher temperatures. “Though it would be a devolving El Nino during summer, i t may not spare us totally and will show its impact on temperatures. March 2024 could thus be hotter for places like Odisha and Gujarat. Interior Maharashtra could feel the heat in April. This is especially because states like Odisha and Gujarat start recording 40°C day temperatures during March even in some of the normal years,” Sharma said.
