Because of the weather forecast in Cleveland, Game 5 of the American League Division Series is now a Saturday matinee between the Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers.
One of those teams will see their season come to an end Saturday. The other will head to the Bronx to face the New York Yankees in the championship series.
Will it be ace Tarik Skubal and the upstart “Gritty Tigs” moving on? Or will the AL Central champion Guardians hold off the underdogs?
We have you covered with pregame predictions, live updates and analysis, followed by our takeaways after the final pitch.
Live updates
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, 1:08 p.m.
Series tied 2-2
Pitching matchup: Tarik Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA) vs. Matthew Boyd (2-2, 2,72 ERA)
Lineups
Tigers
DH Justyn-Henry Malloy (R)
3B Matt Vierling (R)
LF Riley Greene (L)
2B Andy Ibanez (R)
RF Wenceel Pérez (S)
1B Spencer Torkelson (R)
CF Parker Meadows (L)
C Jake Rogers (R)
SS Trey Sweeney (L)
Guardians
LF Steven Kwan (L)
DH David Fry (R)
3B José Ramirez (S)
CF Lane Thomas (R)
1B Josh Naylor (L)
RF Jhonkensy Noel (R)
C Bo Naylor (L)
2B Andrés Giménez (L)
SS Brayan Rocchio (S)
What is the key to Game 5 for the Tigers?
Jesse Rogers: Just don’t make mistakes and let Tarik Skubal do his thing. The Tigers are likely to get some traffic on the bases against Matthew Boyd — perhaps playing some small ball will come in handy — but not beating themselves will be as important as anything in a hostile environment at Progressive Field. That means not running into outs or making Skubal get four or five outs in an inning. Once Skubal comes out of the game — if he comes out — then it’s on manager A.J. Hinch to exploit the right matchups. He has done it most of the series.
David Schoenfield: That’s essentially my take as well. I feel as if the Tigers need to get a couple of early runs against Boyd before getting into the principal part of the Cleveland bullpen — Cade Smith, Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis and Emmanuel Clase. Especially since you know Guardians manager Stephen Vogt‘s plan has to include Clase perhaps pitching two innings. (Yes, the Tigers have gotten to him in two of his appearances, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening a third time.)
The only trouble here for Detroit: Where are those runs going to come from? Kerry Carpenter wouldn’t have been in the starting lineup anyway against a left-hander, and now his status is unclear after injuring his hamstring in Game 4. Riley Greene? Colt Keith? Parker Meadows? All three are lefty hitters who don’t do much against left-handed pitchers. That means guys such as Andy Ibanez and Justyn-Henry Malloy, not to be confused with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, will have to step up.
What is the key to Game 5 for the Guardians?
Rogers: They have two options: Squeeze a run or two off Skubal and hope their great bullpen can keep Detroit off the board after Boyd gives them a few innings, or do what they did in Game 2 — outlast Skubal and then score. That’s the formula. Easier said than done. Here’s the bottom line: The way Skubal is pitching, Cleveland will have no chance if Boyd or someone else has a bad outing. So keeping it close is really the Guardians’ only option. Jose Ramirez building off of his last game would help greatly.
Schoenfield: If possible, force Skubal to run up his pitch count and get him out as soon as possible. Unfortunately for the Guardians, one of the things that has made Skubal the best starter in the majors this season is his pitch efficiency. Even in his two playoff starts, he has thrown only 88 and 92 pitches, yet still gone six and seven innings. In the regular season, he went past 100 pitches only four times. If the Guardians can get him to that point through five innings rather than seven, they’ll have a chance. Yes, the Detroit bullpen has mostly been lights out for two months, but we finally saw it bend in Game 4 when it surrendered four runs, and it feels as if Cleveland can do some damage there again. And, yes, Jose Ramirez doing Jose Ramirez stuff would help greatly indeed.
Which team will move on to face the Yankees in the ALCS?
Rogers: I’m not betting against the zone Skubal is in right now. If he had shown any cracks last outing or back when the postseason began, maybe I’d pick Clevleand. The Guardians have already bucked one franchise trend by staving off elimination — they had lost their previous 11 attempts heading into Game 4 — but they’re not going to do it again. But it will be a close game. It would be shocking if it wasn’t.
Schoenfield: I’m going with the Guardians, with a 2-1 victory. Maybe they scratch out a run against Skubal. Maybe they score a couple of runs late against the Detroit bullpen. Either way, I think the Cleveland bullpen — the best in the majors all season — comes up big with the season on the line, and the Guardians pull out a low-scoring win. How about a Ramirez walk-off to win it?
