The 2024-25 La Liga season, also known as LaLiga EA Sports due to sponsorship reasons, is set to kick off on Thursday, marking the 94th season of Spain’s premier football competition. As the new season begins, anticipation and speculation abound regarding which team will emerge as the champion, which will face relegation, and which clubs will secure spots in European competitions.
Real Madrid, the defending champions, head into the season with high expectations following their 36th title win in the previous campaign. The season will run from 15 August 2024 to 25 May 2025, with the fixture schedule having been announced on 18 June 2024.
In predicting the outcomes for the season, much attention has been given to Opta’s supercomputer, which uses a combination of market betting odds and Opta Power Rankings to simulate the season thousands of times. This model analyses both historical and recent performances of the teams to forecast the final standings.
According to the supercomputer’s analysis, Real Madrid is heavily favoured to retain their title, with a projected 89 points. The addition of Kylian Mbappé to their squad is considered a significant factor in this prediction, with an 86% likelihood of Madrid securing the championship. Barcelona is expected to finish second, although with a considerable gap, predicted to accumulate 76 points by the end of the season.
Atlético Madrid and Girona are forecasted to complete the top four, earning spots in the Champions League with 69 and 65 points, respectively. These predictions suggest a strong showing from Girona, who were the surprise team of the previous season. Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad are close behind, challenging for European positions, which will be fiercely contested.
The battle for Europa League and Conference League places is expected to be intense. Villarreal, Real Betis, and Sevilla are among the teams vying for these spots, but they face stiff competition from Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad. With the fifth-placed team earning a spot in the Europa League and the sixth-placed team going to the Conference League, the margin for error is slim. Four teams are projected to be within ten points of the two available European slots.
Meanwhile, clubs like Valencia and Celta Vigo are predicted to struggle, finding themselves closer to the relegation zone than to European qualification. The fight for the fourth Champions League spot, specifically, is expected to be particularly competitive, with Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad trailing Girona by just three and two points, respectively.
At the bottom of the table, the supercomputer forecasts a difficult season for the newly promoted teams. Leganés, Valladolid, and Espanyol are predicted to finish in the last three positions, with little separating them in terms of points. These teams are expected to be closely matched, making for a tight relegation battle.
Additionally, clubs like Las Palmas, Rayo Vallecano, and Getafe are projected to hover just above the relegation zone, potentially facing a tense fight for survival until the final matchday. According to Opta, these teams are likely to finish the season within three points of the relegation line, highlighting the precarious nature of their positions.
Overall, the supercomputer’s predictions suggest a highly competitive season both at the top and bottom of the La Liga table.
Real Madrid is expected to dominate, but the race for European places and the battle to avoid relegation will likely provide plenty of drama throughout the campaign.
