If I’m placing bets on a weekend, I’m not looking at full game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I’m looking for the obscure. It’s my specialty, anyway. It’s what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. If there’s an advantage to be found now, it’s in small markets.
So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into this weekend’s props. Results from last week and the entire season are at the bottom of the story.
Let’s start with defense, since that’s where we’ve had success this year.
Odds by ESPN BET.
Sacks
Samson Ebukam (IND) under 0.5 sacks (+115)
I’m a little surprised to be fading Ebukam because for the past two seasons I’ve mostly thought he’s underrated and a player I’d expect my model to like. But the number on the under is way too good here for a player like Ebukam who:
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Is good, not great (17th in PRWR at edge).
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Only has played 60% of defensive snaps this season.
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Is facing a league-average sack rate QB in C.J. Stroud as a light underdog.
All of that adds up to a 60% chance to go under 0.5 sacks (after pushes excluded), according to my model.
Calais Campbell (ATL) under 0.5 sacks (-150 at ESPN BET)
This is one of the biggest disagreements I’ve seen all year, as I price this under at -307. When that happens, I know I’m missing something, and indeed I am: the model doesn’t explicitly know that the Saints have two backup tackles. But I don’t think that’s a huge factor: the Saints offensive line has been bad all year, so it already expects them to struggle. It’s almost all already baked in. After that, there’s not much reason to see why Campbell’s sack line is as strong as it is.
Campbell has 5.5 sacks on the season, splits time between edge and defensive tackle, has a below average win rate at edge and average at defensive tackle, is playing against a quarterback who doesn’t take many sacks, and is on the team that is the underdog in the game. Nothing about that really scares me!
See also:
Tackles
Note that some bets are tackles + assists and others are just tackles or assists.
T.J. Edwards (CHI) over 2.5 assists (+110)
Edwards has gone over this line in nine of 16 contests this year and 19 and of 33 dating back to last season when he was with the Eagles. That’s over 50% but it’s close, so we’d need more than that to justify the over here. Fortunately, we have it: the Bears are 3-point underdogs and if Green Bay has a lead, we can expect more runs (when assists most often occur). My model projects 4.6 (!) assists for Edwards, so we’re way, way over.
See also:
QB interceptions
C.J. Stroud over 0.5 interceptions (+135)
Just playing the number here, with my model putting the fair price at +101. Stroud has the lowest interception rate in the league this year (+101) but this is expected to be a close game (Texans are favored by 1.5) and ultimately we know that the probability of quarterbacks throwing an interception tends to hug 50% pretty tightly. I’ll be honest, I’m a little surprised the model came out this close to 50% but I’m willing to trust it and flip (what it thinks is) a near 50-50 coin while taking plus-money.
See also:
Pass completions
C.J. Stroud over 21.5 completions (-125)
Since Week 10 — excluding the week when Stroud was out — the Texans have been pass heavy, ranking 6th in pass rate over expectation per NFL Next Gen Stats. It makes sense: they have a star quarterback, use him. I expect they will again, with their season on the line. My model forecasts 23.5 completions for Stroud. Plus, while not in the model, I found this notion from Mina Kimes compelling: Stroud has been very effective against Cover-3 and the Colts run lots of Cover-3 under Gus Bradley.
See also:
Pass attempts
Justin Fields over 27.5 pass attempts (-120)
The Bears have been pretty run-heavy this season, but over the past few weeks as Justin Fields has played a little better, they’ve increased their pass rates. They rank 12th in pass rate over expectation over the last four weeks, per NFL Next Gen Stats, a big change from the rest of the season. Plus, they have nothing to lose and probably could use as much Fields evaluation as possible, right? I project 28.9 attempts.
Results
Last week
QB interceptions: 1-0 (+1.2 units)
Pass completions: 0-1 (-1.0 units)
Pass attempts: 1-0 (+1.8 units)
Receptions: 2-0 (+1.8 units)
Sacks: 82-58-7 (+19.3 units)
Tackles: 68-58-1 (+8.6 units)
Overall: 11-8 (+1.7 units)
2023 Season
QB interceptions: 18-22 (-0.3 units)
Pass completions: 8-9 (-1.7 units)
Pass attempts: 10-9 (-1.3 units)
Receptions: 10-2 (+6.7 units)
Sacks: 82-58-7 (+19.3 units)
Tackles: 68-58-1 (+8.6 units)
Defensive interceptions: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
D/ST touchdowns: 2-19 (-3.5 units)
Teasers: 2-2 (+0.4 units)
Weekly specials: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
Game props: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
Overall: 200-187-8 (+20.2 units)
