The narrative ahead of the 2024 NBA draft was that the talent pool was down relative to previous years. Adding to that, the first round was projected to be older — and bigger, height-wise — than it was in past seasons.
Did Wednesday and Thursday play out that way?
ESPN spoke to a dozen college coaches about some of the important storylines that emerged over the course of the two-day event.
According to several sources, the increased age and size of the first-round draft pool are correlated, and they are directly related to several developments at the college level: name, image and likeness (NIL); the additional year given to student-athletes because of the COVID-impacted 2020-21 season; and the increased prevalence of the transfer portal.
Zach Edey, 22, spent four years at Purdue; Providence‘s Devin Carter is 22; Tennessee‘s Dalton Knecht is 23; and back-end first-rounders Dillon Jones (22), Baylor Scheierman (23) and Terrence Shannon Jr. (23) are all older than the average early draft pick.
“All of college basketball is a little bit older right now,” one college coach said. “I do think that while college basketball is pretty soon going to start getting younger again, the NBA — especially in the back half of the first round — seems to be more willing to draft established guys that can make major impacts than taking bets on better long-term projects.”
Another coach said, “It’s just the way college basketball is right now. “The age range is anywhere between 18-24 years old. … The NBA draft is at the mercy of what’s going on in the college landscape.”
As ESPN’s Jeremy Woo wrote before the draft, as many as eight centers were projected as potential first-round picks in this year’s NBA draft, compared to just one in 2023 and three in 2022.
“It speaks to the copycat nature of the league,” a college coach said. “Edey was talked about as a first-rounder out of nowhere after being in the 40s for 18 months, and then he goes into workouts and dominates. It just takes one or two decision-makers or influential people to turn opinion. It’s cyclical to a degree, and right now there’s a conversation about guys that can win in the [NBA] playoffs.”
One NBA scout added, “Bigs have historically been pushed back to college basketball and now they’re getting paid more than what they would make on a two-way [contract]. Do they roll the dice and end up taking a two-way? Or do they take the money from college?”
Most college coaches also agreed the talent level at the top was down, but the draft still had impressive depth through the rest of the first round and into the early part of the second round.
