The Premier League season is almost over, and the race for a place in Europe is reaching its climax.
We take a look at who is in contention to qualify for the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League, how the FA Cup could affect it and what impact an English team winning a European trophy could have.
– How VAR has affected every Premier League club
This page will be updated through the remainder of the season as the permutations develop.
How many teams qualify for Europe?
The maximum that can qualify from domestic performance in the Premier League — so either league position or by winning the FA Cup or Carabao Cup — is seven.
However, the places reserved for European titleholders are separate if a team does not qualify domestically. Therefore, it is technically possible, though unlikely, for the Premier League to have 10 teams in Europe — the seven domestic qualifiers plus the winners of the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League if they are outside the European places.
With Chelsea and West Ham United in the quarterfinals of the Champions League and the Europa Conference League respectively, and unlikely to finish in the European places in the Premier League, it is possible that nine English teams could take part next season.
Which Premier League places will qualify?
At the start of the season, the top four in the Premier League qualify for the Champions League, while fifth place and the FA Cup winners enter the Europa League. The winners of the Carabao Cup qualify for the Europa Conference League.
Manchester United won the Carabao Cup, so they are guaranteed (at minimum) a place in the Europa Conference League.
Allocation as it stands:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4
Europa League: 5, FA Cup winners
Europa Conference League: Manchester United
However, these places are subject to change depending on who wins the FA Cup, where Manchester United finish, and other clubs’ possible success in European competition.
Who is in contention for Europe?
Arsenal (73 points, 30 games) and Manchester City (67, 29 games) are clear in first and second, and both appear certain to be playing in the Champions League next season.
Newcastle United and Manchester United hold the cards in third and fourth on 56 points from 29 games, three points ahead of Tottenham Hotspur, who have played a game more. The final Champions League places are most likely to go to two of these three clubs.
Aston Villa (47 points, 30 games), Brighton & Hove Albion (46 points, 28 games), Liverpool (44 points, 29 games), Brentford (43 points, 30 games), Fulham (39 points, 29 games) and Chelsea (39 points, 30 games) are in contention, but their hopes of contesting for a European place may depend on whether sixth or seventh ends up qualifying.
How can the Premier League have 10 teams in Europe?
The three European titleholders would need to finish outside the European places in the Premier League.
This will definitely be the case with West Ham, very much likely with Chelsea, but only an outside chance with Manchester United (and not realistic with Manchester City.)
How does qualification work if a team wins a European trophy?
There are four overriding principles:
– The winners of a European competition have the automatic right to European football the following season.
– A team has the right to play in the highest-ranked competition they qualify for.
– One Premier League team cannot be adversely affected by another’s success in Europe.
– A Premier League team cannot get a place because of another’s success in Europe.
If a team wins the Champions League or the Europa League:
– They are guaranteed to play in the Champions League wherever they finish in the Premier League.
If a team wins the Europa Conference League:
– They will play in the Europa League unless they finish in the top four — then they will play in the Champions League.
What could happen to Man United’s Carabao Cup place?
Man United won the Carabao Cup, which comes with a berth in the Europa Conference League, but they will take the place in the higher-ranked competition if they win the FA Cup or finish in the top five; the Europa Conference League slot would transfer to sixth place in the league.
If Man United finish in the top four:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, Manchester United
Europa League: 5, FA Cup winners
Europa Conference League: 6
If Man United finish fifth:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4
Europa League: Manchester United, FA Cup winners
Europa Conference League: 6
So how does the FA Cup affect the European places?
Brighton & Hove Albion, Manchester City, Manchester United and Sheffield United are in the semifinals of the FA Cup, to be played on April 22 and 23 (stream both games live on ESPN+, U.S. only)
The effect on the European places works along the same lines as Man United’s Carabao Cup place: if the FA Cup winners qualify for Champions League or the Europa League via the league, the Europa League place for winning the FA Cup transfers to the league.
Manchester City are almost certain to qualify for the Champions League next season, so if they win the FA Cup, the place in the Europa League goes to the Premier League.
If Man City win the FA Cup:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4
Europa League: 5, 6
Europa Conference League: Manchester United
How can seventh qualify for Europe by league position?
This is only the case if Manchester United and the winners of the FA Cup finish in the top six of the Premier League. This would mean seventh gets the place in the Europa Conference League.
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4
Europa League: 5, 6
Europa Conference League: 7
The performance of clubs in Europe cannot increase the number of places allocated to final places in the Premier League table.
Can eighth in the Premier League qualify for Europe?
It is impossible for eighth to qualify by league position. This team must win a domestic cup competition or a European title to play in Europe the following season.
What if Man United win the FA Cup and the Carabao Cup?
If Man United win both cups, their place in the Europa Conference League definitely transfers to the league, and United would have a place in the Europa League. If United finish in the top four, they play in the Champions League and the place in the Europa League for winning the FA Cup goes to sixth place. If United finish outside the top six, the Europa Conference League place goes to sixth.
If Man United win both cups and finish top four:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, Manchester United
Europa League: 5, 6
Europa Conference League: 7
If Man United win both cups and finish 5th or 6th:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4
Europa League: Manchester United, 5th or 6th
Europa Conference League: 7
If Man United win both cups and finish 7th or lower:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4
Europa League: 5, Manchester United
Europa Conference League: 6
What if Man City win the Champions League?
This is almost certain to have no effect on the Premier League as Man City are going to finish in the top four. There is no “drop down” of places to give a fifth Champions League spot.
The position in the group stage for the Champions League titleholders is left vacant. This isn’t filled by giving another team a place, the qualifying rounds are rebalanced with clubs effectively receiving byes.
Ordinarily, the champions of the country ranked 11th in the UEFA coefficient table at the end of the 2021-22 season — Serbia — would go direct to the Champions League group stage, rather than having to qualify. However, Russia are ranked 10th and its clubs remain excluded from European competition. That means the Serbian champions are already guaranteed a place in the group stage.
So, if Man City win the Champions League, it will be the champions of the 12th-ranked country who are given a place in the group stage. This just so happens to be Ukraine.
What if Chelsea win the Champions League?
Chelsea are 11th in the Premier League and 14 points away from fifth, which is the last place in Europe as of now.
If Chelsea win the Champions League and finish outside the European places, the Premier League will get an additional place in the UCL (eight teams in total):
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4, Chelsea (titleholders)
Europa League: 5, FA Cup winners
Europa Conference League: Manchester United
If Chelsea win the Champions League and finish in a place for the Europa League or Europa Conference League, Chelsea will take part in the Champions League and the place in the Europa League or Europa Conference League will be left vacant — it does not pass down the league.
For example, if Chelsea win the UCL and finish fifth:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4, Chelsea (titleholders)
Europa League: FA Cup winners only
Europa Conference League: Manchester United
What if Man United win the Europa League?
If Man United win the Europa League, this will earn them a place in next season’s Champions League. Their Europa Conference League place would transfer to the league. The final allocation of places would depend upon where United finish in the league.
If Man United finish in the top four, the allocation would be unaltered but the third-placed team in nation ranked fifth in the UEFA coefficient table, which is France, would be promoted to the group stage, skipping the qualifying rounds. If Man United finish in a place for the Europa League or Europa Conference League, United will take part in the Champions League and the place in the Europa League or Europa Conference League will be left vacant — it does not pass down the league.
If Man United win the Europa League and finish top four:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, Manchester United
Europa League: 5, FA Cup winners
Europa Conference League: 6
If Man United win the Europa League and finish fifth:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4, Manchester United (UEL titleholders)
Europa League: FA Cup winners only
Europa Conference League: 6
If Man United win the Europa League and finish sixth:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4, Manchester United (UEL titleholders)
Europa League: 5, FA Cup winners
Europa Conference League: No team
If Man United win the Europa League and finish seventh, there’s eight teams in Europe:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4, Manchester United (UEL titleholders)
Europa League: 5, FA Cup winners
Europa Conference League: 6
Illustration does not include the effect of which team wins the FA Cup.
What if West Ham win the Europa Conference League?
West Ham will earn a place in next season’s Europa League.
As West Ham will not qualify for Europe domestically, England would have eight teams in Europe next season — even if West Ham were to be relegated.
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, 4
Europa League: 5, FA Cup winners, West Ham
Europa Conference League: Manchester United
What if more than one English team wins a European trophy?
In principle, each scenario remains as above, applied in the same way individually to each competition.
So if Man United and Man City both win and also finish in the top four, the number of Champions League places is unaltered and sixth will qualify for the Europa Conference League.
As West Ham cannot qualify domestically, winning the Europa Conference League will add an eighth place regardless of how Chelsea, Man City and Man United perform.
If Chelsea and Man United win the UCL and UEL, and both finish outside the top four, that means six English teams are qualified for the Champions League. However, the maximum number of teams who can play in the Champions League is five. Therefore, the fourth-placed team in the Premier League would be relegated to the Europa League.
If Chelsea win the Champions League and finish seventh or lower, and Man United win the Europa League and finish fifth:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, Manchester United, Chelsea
Europa League: 4, FA Cup winners
Europa Conference League: 6
The place in the Europa League that Man United earned by finishing fifth is swapped with the fourth-placed team.
Let’s say Chelsea win the Champions League and finish seventh or lower, Man United win the Europa League and finish fifth, plus West Ham win the Europa Conference League:
Champions League: 1, 2, 3, Manchester United, Chelsea
Europa League: 4, FA Cup winners, West Ham
Europa Conference League: 6
This second scenario gives nine English teams in European competition.
