This one’s for all the marbles. Or at least, most of the marbles.
Ohio State vs. Michigan always feels like it carries the weight of the college football world on its shoulders. Purposefully scheduled for the final week of the regular season, it’s the perfect way to cap off an exciting year on the gridiron. It also serves as an amuse-bouche for what’s about to come. Starting next week, we’re in store for conference championships, playoff bids and bowl announcements.
The Buckeyes and Wolverines need this win more than most. Despite their being the clear top-two teams in the Big Ten, only one can make (and likely win) the title game, locking up a CFP spot while the other sits at home and waits to see how the committee feels about a one-loss non-champion.
Michigan’s currently laying about a field goal at home, and that’s not a shock if you’ve seen the Wolverines play much of the season. But it’s a rare sight for the Buckeyes, who have been favored in 43 straight games against Big Ten teams. That’s the longest active streak within any conference.
So how should you bet this game? ESPN Analytics has UM favored by two points at the Big House. But the last time Ohio State was an underdog against a Big Ten team was in 2018 (also against Michigan), when it won 62-39 as a 4-point underdog.
And what about the total? Nine straight OSU-MICH games have gone over the total, by an average of 17.9 PPG. But unders are 9-2 in Ohio State games this season, tied for the highest under percentage in FBS this season.
Whichever way you’re leaning, prepare yourself for one of the best games of the year. We’re checking in with Matt Miller, Dalen Cuff and Kevin Pulsifer on this game and a few other betting favorites for Week 13.
Without Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines, can Michigan still pull off the victory and cover the spread, or will Ohio State win the Big Game for the first time since 2020?
Matt Miller: The absence of Harbaugh hasn’t bothered Michigan’s bottom line this season, but if you look closely I think we can see weaknesses in the Wolverines’ offense that will cost them the Big Game. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy hasn’t thrown a touchdown in three weeks and Michigan struggled to put away Maryland last week. Ohio State has its issues offensively at times, and I think on paper Michigan is the better team, but the loss of Harbaugh has me picking Ohio State to win.
Dalen Cuff: Michigan hasn’t looked good in recent weeks and all the noise around the program and the absence of Harbaugh might be having an effect. That’s theoretical; what we do know is the Wolverines played one quality opponent in Penn State and didn’t throw a pass in the second half on the way to the win. That’s not because their run game was so prolific, but instead their pass protection couldn’t allow McCarthy to throw the ball in the first half. I’m skeptical of their offense with this Ohio State defense. That said, the Buckeyes will be playing against a high-level defense in an absolute cauldron of an environment so I’m not sold that their offense can put up a ton of points. I trust both the defenses more here, under 46.5 is my play.
Kevin Pulsifer: I’ve been slowly beating the drum for Ohio State as the superior team, especially with Michigan struggling against the spread while scandal surrounds the program (0-3 ATS without Harbaugh at the start of the season, 1-2 ATS since the sign-stealing reveals reached a fever pitch). I’ll take the field goal with the Buckeyes.
As the Heisman Trophy race enters its final two weeks LSU QB Jayden Daniels (-115) is now the odds-on favorite at ESPN BET. Despite a six-touchdown, 404-yard performance last Saturday, Oregon QB Bo Nix is currently listed at +140. Is now the time to bet on Nix entering the rivalry matchup against Oregon State?
Matt Miller: Betting on Nix is a smart bet from an odds standpoint, but I maintain this award is Daniels’ to lose. Voters are predominantly watching SEC games, and in a year when there isn’t a runaway winner, I think we see highlight performers win out. Daniels is that, and would be my pick to win the award.
Dalen Cuff: Look back a few weeks in this column: I said Daniels was the guy when value was there. It’s not now, and I think he’s going to win the award. I’m not betting anyone else at this point.
Kevin Pulsifer: Daniels is putting up the kind of season we saw from Lamar Jackson in his Heisman-winning campaign (outrageous statistical output, a concerning number of team losses), so it’s certainly possible. But if voters haven’t come around to admitting it yet, we may not see them get there with one game left (and a presumptive winner-take-all game between Nix and Michael Penix Jr. on the horizon).
Do you have any favorite bets for Week 13?
Matt Miller: Missouri (-7.5) over Arkansas feels light. The Razorbacks have announced that head coach Sam Pittman will return this year, but the talent discrepancy between the two teams is huge. Missouri is a top-10 team for a reason, and I’d hammer the Tigers to cover that spread.
Kevin Pulsifer: Come for the Maui Invitational college basketball tournament, stay for the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors upset pick. They’re 5.5-point underdogs against Colorado State at the moment, but ESPN Analytics has them favored by 2.5. The Rams have won only one road game this season, and a trip to Hawaii is enough of an adjustment that those splits can really matter.
I’m also looking at SMU, an 18-point home favorite against Navy this weekend, hoping to cap off a perfect 8-0 conference season. With Tulane and UTSA also both unbeaten in AAC play, this game is still a must-win for the Mustangs to keep their hopes for a New Year’s Six bowl game alive. They might not match the 46.1 PPG they’ve scored against non-Power 5 teams this season, but they should cruise to an easy victory.
