S&P 500 closes higher Monday to kick off a busy earnings week: Live updates

If history repeats itself, the S&P 500 should outperform later this week and early next week.

The broad index has seen a median advance of 0.83% in the week’s worth of trading days following the tax deadline, according to a Bespoke Investment Group analysis of the past 25 years. This year’s deadline is Tuesday.

Of the past 25 years, the S&P 500 has traded positively in 76% of the five-day periods following the deadline.

That’s better than a typical one-week period for the broad index over the past quarter-century. In any one-week period over the same timeframe, the S&P 500 posted a median gain of 0.31%. And the index finished those periods in the green just 57% of the time.

— Alex Harring

UBS says Okta‘s “compelling mix of growth and improving profitability” is currently underappreciated by investors. 

The bank initiated coverage on Okta with a buy rating and a price target of $100, which implies 35% upside from Friday’s closing price. Shares of Okta are up 13% year to date, slightly outperforming the S&P 500′s 8% gain. However, the workforce identity software company’s stock has dropped more than 48% over the past 12 months. 

“While Okta stumbled in CY22, 10+ conversations over the past 2 quarters suggest execution is improving and platform direction is resonating,” analyst Roger Boyd wrote in a Sunday note. 

Shares gained 3.9% on Monday.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about his upgrade here.

— Hakyung Kim

Investors poured money into money market funds during March as tumult in the banking industry was a boon to safe-haven instruments.

For the month, the asset class pulled in $363 billion, the third-highest ever in Morningstar data that goes back to 1993. The surge was bested only by the early days of the Covid crisis. The move pushed the total assets for the group to $5.2 trillion by the end of the month, according to the Investment Company Institute.

The banking troubles caused some substantial reshuffling in money across categories.

Looking to snap up oversold bank stocks, investors pushed $1.2 billion into the $3 trillion SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF. Overall, though, U.S. equity funds saw outflows of $16.5 billion, the fifth straight month of negative flows.

— Jeff Cox

Count Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson among the Wall Street pros who are skeptical of the strong start to the year for the stock market.

The strategist pointed to the small group of leadership in the market as one reason to believe that the S&P 500 is poised for a pullback.

“We think the recent collapse in breadth is the market’s way of warning us we are far from out of the woods with this bear market,” Wilson wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

Read more about Wilson’s skepticism on CNBC Pro.

— Jesse Pound

Shares of Bank of New York Mellon dropped 5.7% ahead of the company’s quarterly earnings report on Tuesday. The bank stock is leading the S&P 500’s top decliners on Monday along with State Street, which was down 10.4% after its first-quarter earnings fell short of expectations, and Moderna.

“Because bank multiples are down so much, a lot of these banks are trading at March 2020 levels, so think peak-pandemic,” CFRA Research analyst Alexander Yokum said Monday on “Squawk on the Street.” “For banks that do not see a hit to profitability, for banks that do not see significant deposit outflows, especially those regionals, they could really pop on earnings.”

Shares of Charles Schwab and M&T Bank were recently trading higher after positive earnings reports. Charles Schwab added 2.3% after topping analysts’ expectations on profit, despite also reporting a 30% decline in deposits from a year ago, while M&T Bank jumped 6.5% after beating first-quarter estimates on the top and bottom lines.

The KBW Bank Index was last up 0.4%, while the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF was 1.6% higher.

— Pia Singh

Shares of Moderna tumbled more than 7% Monday even after the pharmaceutical company shared encouraging results over the weekend from a trial of its experimental cancer vaccine in conjunction with Merck.

Moderna’s mRNA vaccine helped cut the risk of death or recurrence of deadly skin cancer melanoma by 44% when combined with Merck’s Keytruda immunotherapy.

Despite the promising results, some analysts raised caution and some doubt over the treatment’s approval path.

Merck shares traded flat.

— Samantha Subin, Annika Kim Constantino

Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading on Monday:

Enphase Energy, First Solar, SolarEdge Technologies – Solar energy stocks climbed across the board, with Enphase leading the charge with a 7.2% gain, while First Solar and SolarEdge added 5.4% and 4.3% respectively. Piper Sandler upgraded Enphase Energy earlier on Monday from neutral to overweight, citing possible 40% top line growth this year.

State Street, M&T Bank – Shares of State Street dropped 11% after the company posted disappointing earnings and revenue. State Street posted earnings of $1.52 per share on revenue of $3.10 billion, while analysts called for per-share earnings of $1.64 and revenue of $3.12 billion, according to Refinitiv. Meanwhile, M&T Bank shares popped 5% higher after the bank reported beats on the top and bottom lines. Bank of New York Mellon, set to post results on Tuesday, slipped 5%.

Alphabet – Shares of the Google parent slid 3% after The New York Times reported that Samsung is considering ditching Google as the default search engine on its smartphones in favor of Microsoft’s Bing. The report, citing internal messages, said Alphabet was spooked upon learning about the discussions in March, and that about $3 billion in annual revenue is at stake.

Read the full list here.

— Brian Evans

It’s beginning to “feel like a bull market,” as stocks push higher and the number of up days hits the highest percent in over a year, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee.

Stocks are up 65% of the last 20 trading sessions, marking the highest percent since November 2021, the head of research wrote in a Monday note. It also marks a significant improvement over the period between December 2021 and March 2023, when the figure never punched above 60%.

Broken down by sector, healthcare’s seen the greatest percent of up days, followed by utilities, basic materials and industrials, Lee said.

And this uptrend isn’t done just yet. Looking ahead, the analyst expects the ratio of up days to hit 70% over the next few weeks, driven by first-quarter earnings per share expectations that surpass estimates.

These results should “bolster confidence that EPS estimates are finally bottoming,” he said, adding that he expects an EPS trough by the second half of this year, which would support “strengthening breadth.”

Biogen shares rose 1% Monday after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral.

The firm said several positive catalysts are in sight for Biogen over the next several quarters. Analyst Christopher Raymond upgraded Biogen to overweight from neutral. He also raised his price target to $346 per share from $280 per share. The new target implies upside of 20.3% from Friday’s close.

The firm named the foremost catalyst for Biogen as Alzheimer’s treatment Leqembi, which it co-developed with Japanese pharmaceutical company Eisai. Leqembi is awaiting full approval from the Food and Drug Administration by July 6. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services announced earlier in the year that it would provide broader coverage of Leqembi following the FDA approval. 

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about the upgrade here.

— Hakyung Kim

Shares of Uber were up nearly 1% Monday after Jefferies called the stock one of its top picks. The firm anticipates that shares could surge almost 56% from Friday’s close price.

“We estimate UBER’s core Rideshare/Restaurant Delivery businesses each operate in ~$1 trillion addressable markets, which implies just ~5% penetration and a long runway for growth,” analyst John Colantuoni wrote in a Sunday note to clients. 

“We believe UBER’s dominant scale and network effect support greater reinvestment into customer experience/ adoption, which should spur frequency/stickiness and grow market share over time,” he continued. 

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about the the call here.

— Hakyung Kim

Piper Sandler upgraded Enphase Energy shares to overweight from neutral, saying that its U.S. business is “not as bad as feared.”

The firm’s upgrade comes after it downgraded Enphase shares to neutral in January 2023. The previous downgrade was due to concerns that  U.S. residential demand would significantly weaken. However, analyst Kashy Harrison said in a Sunday note that “since then, based on commentary from the publics and discussions with privates, Q1 originations were overall better than we previously feared.”

Harrison’s target price of $255 implies 22% upside from Friday’s close. Shares popped 9% on Monday.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about his upgrade here.

— Hakyung Kim

Steve Eisman of “The Big Short” fame said Monday that he remains cautious in this fluid macroeconomic environment, and is keeping his powder dry by parking cash in short-term Treasurys.

“You don’t need to be a hero at this point. I think you have to wait,” Eisman said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “On the margin, we’ve tried to raise some cash. We’ve put some clients into three months Treasurys. We’re thinking about eventually buying some corporate bonds. We’re quite cautious. We’re quite diversified at this point.”

Eisman, senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, believes it’s still unclear if the Fed will win the inflation battle despite recent data showing easing price pressures. He said the central bank will keep its word and leave rates elevated for longer.

— Yun Li

Communication services stocks lagged on Monday, dragging the S&P 500 sector down 1.7%.

Alphabet shares led the losses, last down 3.4% following a report from The New York Times that Samsung could make Microsoft’s Bing its default search engine. Netflix shares fell 2.3%, while Meta Platforms lost 1.2%.

Shares of Live Nation Entertainment and Omnicom Group slipped a little under 1%.

— Samantha Subin

Shares of M&T Bank were up about 1.7% after the large regional bank beat estimates on the top and bottom lines for the first quarter.

M&T Bank reported $4.01 in adjusted earnings per share on $2.41 billion in revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv projected $3.99 in earnings per share and $2.38 billion of revenue.

Deposits declined about 3% to $159.1 billion at the end of March from $163.5 billion at the end of December, suggesting that the bank did not see significant outflows during the regional banking crisis last month.

— Jesse Pound

XPeng shares surged nearly 13% on Monday after the electric vehicle maker unveiled a new production platform aimed at improving costs and production speeds.

Other China-based electric vehicle makers Nio and Li Auto rose 7.2% and 5%, respectively, on the announcement.

Shares of IT company HP were up 3% Monday after JPMorgan upgraded shares to overweight from neutral.

Analyst Samik Chatterjee raised his yearend price target on HP shares to $35 from $30, which implies 17% upside from Friday’s close. 

“We are looking to turn a corner in relation to the headwinds that have plagued the PC end-market,” Chatterjee wrote in a note Monday. 

“We have found the latest data points in relation to PC shipments reinforcing our view of a 2H recovery embedded in our PC model, implying a 21% H/H increase in units in 2H23 (admittedly off a low base), which should set up the PC business segments for … a robust ramp in revenue and an even stronger ramp in profits helped by leveraging a leaner cost structure on account of the costs actions taken,” Chatterjee continued. 

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about his upgrade here.

— Hakyung Kim

Charles Schwab on Monday posted results that topped analysts’ expectations on profit, but also disclosed a 30% decline in deposits from a year ago.

The company said first-quarter net income rose 14% to $1.6 billion from a year earlier, or 83 cents a share.

When excluding expenses tied to acquisitions and other charges, Schwab posted 93 cents of adjusted earnings per share, topping the 90 cent estimate of analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.

Revenue climbed 10% to $5.12 billion, just below the $5.13 billion estimate.

Shares of the company were up less than 1% in morning trading.

“While equity markets rebounded from year-end 2022 levels, investor sentiment remained bearish – especially following the onset of the banking industry turmoil in early March,” CEO Walt Bettinger said in the earnings release. “Through the various ups and downs to start the year, Schwab remained a trusted partner to investors.”

Schwab, a leading retail brokerage and bank, has been under pressure since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last month as the market sought to punish other financial firms experiencing deposit flight. The industry’s deposits have been in flux as customers awaken to the lure of higher yielding places to park their cash, including money market funds.

Since going commission free in 2019, Schwab has been more dependent on fee revenue from its bank, which benefits when the brokerage sweeps customers’ cash into low-yielding accounts.

But customers have been moving funds in force as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase makes money markets more alluring.

Schwab said that deposits tumbled 30% from a year ago to $325.7 billion in the first quarter, a staggering $140.1 billion drop. Compared to the fourth quarter, deposits were 11% lower.

Fees from bank accounts slumped by 49% to $151 million.

CFO Peter Crawford acknowledged the deposit drain in a statement, but added that the pace of flows was declining as the quarter went on, “even when allowing for a temporary spike in activity at the onset of the banking system turmoil.”

—Hugh Son

Roblox shares dropped 12% after the company posted its metrics report for March, which showed estimated average bookings per daily active users between $3.73 and 3.85. That shows a change of -2% to +1% for the year-earlier period.

The stock was on pace for its worst day since Dec. 15, when it fell 15.8%.

The company also said it will end the monthly update releases, noting: “While we believe that has provided incremental information to investors regarding the seasonality of the business, we have decided to cease providing key monthly metrics to align our reporting cadence with our value of taking the long view.”

— Fred Imbert, Ashley Capoot

Lumentum shares rose 1.6% on the back of an upgrade from JPMorgan.

Analyst Samik Chatterjee upgraded the light and laser stock to overweight from neutral and raised his price target by $6 to $60. Chatterjee’s new price target implies the stock could rally 32.6% from where it finished Friday’s session.

“We believe the current valuation is pricing in more headwinds than realistic, even when conservatively considering additional near-term downside to estimates from further share loss in 3D Sensing as well as inventory rationalization from Telecom and Datacom customers,” he said in a note to clients Monday.

Shares have fallen 13.3% this year. CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about the call here.

The major averages opened along the flatline Monday, as the corporate earnings season rolled on. The Dow posted marginal gains, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dipped slightly.

— Fred Imbert

Check out the companies making headlines before the bell on Monday:

• Alphabet – Shares of the Google parent slid 4% in early morning trading after The New York Times reported that Samsung is discussing using Microsoft’s Bing as the default search engine on its devices given its recent AI technology advancements, which would replace Google. The report, citing internal messages, said Alphabet learned about the discussions in March and that about $3 billion in annual revenue is at stake.
• M&T Bank — The regional bank stock jumped 3% after the company posted its latest quarterly figures. M&T Bank posted adjusted earnings of $4.09 per share, beating a Refinitiv forecast of $3.99 per share. The bank’s revenue of $2.41 billion also topped a consensus estimate of $2.38 billion.
• Merck, Prometheus Biosciences — Shares of Prometheus rallied 69% on news the company will be acquired by Merck for $10.8 billion. The deal values shares of Prometheus at $200, representing a 75.4% premium to its closing price on Friday. Merck shares dipped slightly.

Read here to see which other companies are making moves before the open.

— Pia Singh

Shares of Charles Schwab rose 1% before the bell after reporting first-quarter earnings results.

The brokerage firm reported earnings per share that came in 3 cents above expectations, according to Refinitiv. Revenue for the recent quarter came in slightly below the $5.13 billion expected.

Schwab also announced a pause on buybacks and an 11% decrease in bank deposits from the fourth quarter of 2022.

The stock’s come under pressure in recent weeks amid the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.

— Samantha Subin

Manufacturing activity in the New York region turned positive for the first time since November, according to a Federal Reserve gauge released Monday.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey surged more than 35 points to a reading of 10.8, representing the percentage difference between companies seeing expansion against contraction. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for -15.

New orders rose by 46.8 points to 25.1 and shipments jumped 37.3 points to 23.9. Prices paid fell 8.9 points to 33, which still indicates inflation pressures. The employment index nudged higher but was still negative at -8.

The outlook for general business conditions six months from now improved to 6.6, up 3.7 points.

—Jeff Cox

Alphabet slid more than 4% in early morning trading after the New York Times reported that Samsung could replace Google with Microsoft’s Bing as the default search engine on its devices.

The report, citing internal documents, revealed that Google learned Samsung was weighing the decision in March and responded with “panic.” About $3 billion in annual revenue is at stake.

A similar contract with Apple that’s up for renewal this year has another $20 billion tied to it, according to the report.

— Tanaya Macheel

Shares of State Street dropped 10% in premarket trading after first-quarter earnings came in below expectations.

The asset manager reported $1.52 in earnings per share on $3.10 billion in revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting. $1.64 in earnings per share on $3.12 billion in revenue.

State Street said its assets under management were down 10% year over year, contributing to a 10% drop in fee revenue.

Compared to the prior quarter, assets grew slightly but fee revenue was still down 1%.

Net income was $549 million, down from $604 million a year ago and $733 million in the fourth quarter.

— Jesse Pound

Despite persistent inflation, higher rates and fears of an impending recession, earnings season is off to one of its best starts in a little over a decade, according to data from Bank of America.

Of the 30 companies that have reported so far, 90% have beat earnings per share expectations, marking the best beat rate after week one since at least 2012, wrote Savita Subramanian in a Monday note to clients.

She added that 73% of companies that reported last week surpassed sales expectations, while 67% beat on both measures. Last quarter’s week one results showed just 46% of companies beat on both EPS and sales, while the historical average sits at just 48%.

“Fueled by bank beats, 1Q EPS is tracking a 30bp surprise,” the equity and quant strategist said. “We forecast an in-line quarter but expect more downward guidance and some commentary around changes in cash use if credit conditions deteriorate.”

Overall, consensus expectations are calling for a more than 7% decline in first-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 year over year, she noted.

Big bank earnings may have offered some relief, but the market isn’t out of the woods just yet as credit impacts emerge in areas like industrials.

“A massive, systemic financial confidence shock appears to have been averted, but tighter credit is manifesting in the real economy,” she said.

— Samantha Subin

Goldman Sachs strategists led by Cecilia Mariotti noted that, “while While equities have proved to be resilient during the US banking stress, helped by a rally in bonds, the combination of growth risks and a slowing pace of inflation has weighed on real assets (from commodities to real estate).”

To be sure, Mariotti noted that, “strategically, we still like ‘real assets’ as inflation could remain elevated for longer, but screen for more defensive characteristics: we like infrastructure, stable growth companies, short-dated TIPS, and longs on intermediate-to-longer-dated breakevens.”

— Fred Imbert, Michael Bloom

U.S. regional banks largely sold off after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March.

Should you buy the dip or steer clear of the uncertainty?

A bull and a bear on U.S. regional banks faced off on CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Thursday and shared their stock picks — including one big bank stock and two regional names.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Weizhen Tan

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen thinks banks could become more restrictive with lending which could allow the Fed to stop hiking interest rates.

Yellen told CNN on Saturday that the threat of further fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has been sustained thanks to successful policy actions, while outflows have substantially stabilized.

“Banks are likely to become somewhat more cautious in this environment,” Yellen said. “We already saw some tightening of lending standards in the banking system prior to that episode, and there may be some more to come.”

And if more of that tightening does come to fruition, Yellen added, such action could serve as “a substitute for further interest rate hikes that the Fed needs to make.”

— Brian Evans

Despite Friday’s losses, the major averages posted solid weekly gains, in yet another sign of resiliency for this market.

The Dow rose for a fourth straight week, advancing 1.2%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, notched their fourth weekly advance in five weeks, climbing 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively.

— Fred Imbert