After each of the top three MVP favorites lost in Week 1, the MVP race remains as wide open as it was in Week 1. Patrick Mahomes remains the 6-1 favorite despite his Week 1 loss to the Lions, but the odds behind him have shaken up significantly. Here is how the MVP favorites stack up after Week 1.
Patrick Mahomes: +600 (last week: +600).
Week 2 matchup: at Jacksonville Jaguars
Despite the Chiefs’ Week 1 loss, Patrick Mahomes’ MVP odds did not dip at all. While Mahomes did not play his best game, he was victimized by drops and the absence of Travis Kelce. He still ranks eighth in the NFL in Total QBR. If Kelce comes back, there’s no reason Mahomes can’t win a second straight MVP. ESPN Analytics grades the Chiefs as having the most difficult remaining schedule in the NFL, so the Chiefs may face an uphill climb to claim the one seed. This could be a good entry point with the Bears on deck next week, but until Kelce shows he is fully healthy, Mahomes is tough to back at such short odds. If Kelce shows he is healthy and Mahomes’ odds don’t shorten, he could quickly become a solid bet.
Tua Tagovailoa: +650 (last week: +2200)
Week 2 matchup: at New England Patriots
Tagovailoa went from the 10th favorite last week to the second favorite after posting 466 yards last week on the Los Angeles Chargers. Tagovailoa checks a lot of boxes as an MVP favorite. 14 of the last 18 MVPs have gotten one seeds including six straight. ESPN Analytics make the Dolphins a small favorite to get the top seed this year. Tagovailoa also has an elite statistical profile, even dating back to last season. But can he stay healthy? If so, Tagovailoa can easily win this award. But given his concussion history, it’s hard to back Tagovailoa with so much season left to play. Plus, Hill’s teammate Tyreek Hill could potentially take votes away from Tagovailoa. Hill’s odds moved from 150-1 to 50-1 as he seeks to be the first wide receiver to win the award.
Joe Burrow: +850 (last week: +700)
Week 2 matchup: vs Baltimore Ravens
Burrow’s odds dropped after posting the worst game of his NFL career in virtually every category last week. However, it does not appear like his odds have dropped enough. No MVP in the last 20 seasons has completed a full game with under 100 yards passing like Burrow did last week. Burrow is certainly good enough to be the exception.
Josh Allen: +1200 (last week: +750)
Week 2 matchup: vs Las Vegas Raiders
Allen had four turnovers last week, including three interceptions, which explains why his odds have dropped so much in one week. It continues a trend from late last season of Allen committing too many turnovers. However, this could end up being a good entry point on Allen. He faces the Raiders this week, a team ESPN Analytics rates as the worst defense in the NFL, after having a road game against the Jets defense last week. Second, the Bills still grade out as the second-best team in the AFC according to ESPN Analytics. If they can get past the Dolphins, the Bills could win the division and still have an elite season.
Jalen Hurts: +1200 (last week: +1000)
Week 2 matchup: vs Minnesota Vikings
Hurts’ odds dipped just like Burrow and Allen after all three put up poor performances on the road against strong defenses. But unlike Burrow and Allen, Hurts’ odds are much more appealing this week. Hurts was the favorite to win MVP before his injury last season, and playing in the NFC, his chances to put up an elite record are higher than the other favorites. This week, he faces the Vikings which grade out as one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Eagles have the third-highest win projection in the NFL this season, and Jalen Hurts has an elite statistical profile that made him a top-three fantasy quarterback in most drafts.
Odds courtesy Caesars Sportsbook.
